* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL892023 02/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 83 70 58 47 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 77 75 63 51 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 79 79 70 62 49 37 27 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 51 49 49 52 61 60 58 52 48 42 42 37 29 24 24 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 -3 0 -5 0 4 6 7 4 -2 -6 0 7 6 9 10 SHEAR DIR 278 278 278 279 287 281 268 261 259 253 244 234 236 231 233 230 249 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 27.0 25.9 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 121 120 122 124 124 128 117 132 133 132 140 140 144 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 114 119 119 122 124 124 128 117 132 133 132 138 134 134 130 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -56.3 -55.8 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 6 9 7 9 6 8 8 9 8 9 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 14 14 13 12 15 17 21 22 25 29 32 36 42 41 40 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -44 -32 -29 -18 16 15 -15 -32 -30 -24 -14 -15 -52 -63 -49 -38 200 MB DIV -58 -52 -62 -49 -40 -77 -70 -37 -7 -6 24 13 39 26 -6 0 1 700-850 TADV -16 -13 -14 -17 -17 4 7 10 22 11 12 8 6 6 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 75 -11 92 144 133 234 366 -11 120 366 557 557 573 530 454 419 479 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.1 17.6 17.0 16.5 15.7 14.7 12.9 11.4 10.7 10.7 11.1 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.3 68.0 69.9 71.9 76.0 79.8 83.6 87.7 91.8 95.8 99.1 101.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 18 19 20 20 19 22 21 20 18 15 10 6 3 0 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 7 7 12 14 4 5 0 7 6 10 16 20 19 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -28. -29. -31. -33. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -9. -20. -30. -40. -55. -61. -61. -60. -57. -51. -44. -34. -23. -17. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -12. -25. -36. -48. -68. -79. -85. -90. -91. -85. -77. -69. -58. -49. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.4 65.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL892023 TEST 02/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1136.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -52.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL892023 TEST 02/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL892023 TEST 02/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 0( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 77 75 63 51 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 92 80 68 49 38 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 12HR AGO 95 92 91 79 67 48 37 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 73 54 43 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 57 46 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT