* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SSU AL802023 03/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 160 125 83 51 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 160 125 80 74 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 160 133 111 91 88 67 53 42 35 31 27 31 31 31 31 31 31 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 80 73 70 64 63 63 55 40 32 17 13 20 20 23 24 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -7 -13 -9 -5 6 8 0 0 1 3 0 1 1 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 261 261 272 287 301 310 297 294 274 253 250 234 242 265 280 275 274 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 117 120 121 121 122 122 125 132 130 130 151 154 153 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 107 111 114 117 119 122 125 132 130 129 151 154 152 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 8 8 10 8 10 9 11 9 12 9 11 8 700-500 MB RH 19 24 21 21 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 24 22 23 29 29 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -39 -45 -45 -38 -21 15 29 31 16 3 7 26 32 32 -6 -5 200 MB DIV 2 -27 -69 -79 -82 -85 -101 -90 -63 -32 -4 -25 -30 -6 -13 -22 -61 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 4 13 4 2 1 0 -3 1 -4 4 LAND (KM) 108 33 0 -21 69 116 253 367 388 45 -65 100 179 249 318 286 316 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.0 15.8 14.5 13.4 12.7 12.2 12.2 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.6 66.3 67.0 68.0 70.5 73.2 76.3 79.7 83.1 86.1 88.8 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 9 11 14 15 17 18 16 14 13 11 11 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 6 8 6 7 8 7 7 9 5 4 20 28 35 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 830 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -8. -16. -24. -29. -40. -54. -74. -91.-105.-113.-117.-117.-118.-118.-116.-113. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -27. -59. -84.-104.-129.-126.-103. -82. -59. -36. -21. -6. 11. 21. 21. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -35. -77.-109.-135.-172.-184.-179.-176.-167.-150.-137.-120. -99. -84. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 18.5 64.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802023 SSU 03/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 70.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1712.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -49.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -51.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802023 SSU 03/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802023 SSU 03/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 0( 81) 0( 81) 0( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 125 80 74 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 160 159 114 108 93 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 12HR AGO 160 157 156 150 135 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 135 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 IN 6HR 160 125 116 110 107 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT