* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * REMNANTRAI CP812023 04/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 69 67 66 69 67 59 65 72 70 77 83 89 92 87 72 59 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 0 2 8 0 -4 3 -9 -19 -22 -32 -26 -12 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 250 242 235 237 239 251 267 266 262 254 241 236 237 246 263 272 292 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.7 24.8 24.0 22.9 21.8 20.3 19.7 18.6 18.2 20.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 121 119 118 120 120 112 105 94 83 67 65 65 66 69 71 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.0 -54.9 -54.3 -54.2 -56.0 -57.0 -57.1 -57.3 -56.5 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 74 72 71 73 72 68 57 50 46 41 35 33 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -12 -19 -22 -25 -21 -17 -2 -27 -29 -58 -47 -39 -33 -18 -15 28 200 MB DIV 79 91 88 57 37 49 21 -20 -5 28 38 44 0 -13 -60 -141 -165 700-850 TADV 3 5 7 8 5 2 4 7 17 7 -6 -22 -36 -28 -30 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 1379 1288 1218 1186 1185 1251 1347 1498 1691 1963 2071 1677 1250 806 371 -27 0 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.9 15.5 17.4 19.0 20.4 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.5 147.0 147.1 146.8 145.7 144.2 142.0 139.4 136.3 132.9 129.4 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 5 3 4 7 9 13 17 18 18 18 21 22 24 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 17. 12. 9. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -16. -23. -38. -60. -82. -99. -110. -119. -126. -131. -128. -122. -119. -113. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -26. -44. -66. -85. -98. -107. -114. -121. -129. -130. -125. -125. -123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.9 145.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP812023 REMNANTRAI 04/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 92.7 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP812023 REMNANTRAI 04/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##