* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BRET AL032023 06/20/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 55 62 67 67 71 69 70 66 65 62 60 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 55 62 67 67 71 69 70 66 65 62 44 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 57 60 62 62 60 59 57 54 40 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 2 4 5 8 16 21 24 17 27 22 25 21 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 9 9 12 10 4 0 0 3 3 2 3 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 143 196 200 104 205 335 272 285 267 296 299 318 325 314 309 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.6 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 135 130 133 143 148 153 152 149 149 153 152 155 162 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 61 59 56 54 53 52 53 52 55 52 52 50 54 57 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 18 17 18 19 16 18 16 16 14 13 10 8 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 37 26 21 7 3 1 16 26 37 46 53 54 44 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 75 86 111 137 65 -23 -52 -16 -3 13 14 0 0 22 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 -6 -3 -2 -7 -7 0 -1 0 0 4 3 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1232 1124 1034 962 898 835 608 334 135 59 226 175 118 2 -6 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 42.7 44.3 45.9 47.3 48.6 51.2 53.8 56.4 59.3 61.9 64.4 66.8 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 13 13 13 13 13 14 12 13 12 11 9 9 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 15 34 15 11 23 46 52 35 36 46 52 54 84 43 42 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 22. 29. 37. 43. 47. 50. 51. 50. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -17. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -2. -1. -5. -5. -10. -12. -16. -21. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 32. 32. 36. 34. 35. 31. 30. 27. 25. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 42.7
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/20/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 1.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 30.3% 16.0% 9.7% 7.7% 12.2% 13.9% 15.1%
Logistic: 8.6% 29.9% 19.4% 11.2% 4.3% 8.7% 5.0% 3.3%
Bayesian: 1.9% 6.1% 7.0% 0.4% 0.6% 4.1% 17.8% 1.6%
Consensus: 5.3% 22.1% 14.2% 7.1% 4.2% 8.3% 12.2% 6.7%
DTOPS: 4.0% 25.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/20/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/20/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 50 55 62 67 67 71 69 70 66 65 62 44 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 50 57 62 62 66 64 65 61 60 57 39 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 49 54 54 58 56 57 53 52 49 31 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 37 42 42 46 44 45 41 40 37 19 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT