* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BRET AL032023 06/22/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 56 52 51 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 56 52 51 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 54 51 48 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 16 19 27 22 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 10 4 3 3 -1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 258 263 279 267 253 278 300 311 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 144 147 151 154 154 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 53 54 53 56 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -8 -5 5 12 21 35 54 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -1 -5 -11 1 19 11 43 35 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -7 -8 -5 0 -4 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 522 389 258 118 84 247 371 287 337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 54.6 55.9 57.1 58.6 60.1 63.5 67.0 70.5 74.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 15 16 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 48 34 26 28 46 42 40 58 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -4. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.4 54.6
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/22/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.3% 9.6% 8.6% 6.1% 9.8% 9.0% 8.7%
Logistic: 2.3% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 2.7% 6.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/22/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/22/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 56 56 52 51 47 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 54 50 49 45 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 47 46 42 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 41 40 36 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT