* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CINDY AL042023 06/24/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 50 48 47 50 54 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 50 48 47 50 54 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 47 46 45 44 43 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 8 11 20 23 27 21 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 8 9 7 7 3 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 286 287 292 270 241 252 238 267 266 293 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 140 139 137 150 138 143 146 148 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 58 57 59 61 61 60 59 53 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 11 9 10 11 13 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -5 -13 -14 -21 -26 -16 -12 -14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 10 24 36 38 56 42 53 16 24 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 2 2 3 7 11 10 3 7 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 960 903 780 695 646 446 374 447 539 631 688 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.8 20.6 22.2 23.6 24.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.1 52.5 53.8 55.0 57.7 60.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 65.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 9 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 33 26 26 23 20 42 27 24 39 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -5. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 5. 9. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 49.8
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/24/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.2% 10.8% 8.6% 6.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.3% 10.7% 8.4% 3.7% 1.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Bayesian: 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 9.5% 6.8% 4.1% 2.5% 4.3% 0.3% 0.2%
DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/24/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/24/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 49 50 48 47 50 54 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 47 48 46 45 48 52 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 43 41 40 43 47 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 34 33 36 40 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT