* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ADRIAN EP012023 06/28/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 62 71 79 91 97 93 80 63 46 35 27 24 21 16 N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 53 62 71 79 91 97 93 80 63 46 35 27 24 21 16 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 66 72 83 91 93 83 67 53 44 38 37 36 34 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 13 8 4 6 10 13 20 31 33 35 21 24 19 16 12 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 5 4 -5 2 2 0 -3 -5 5 0 3 0 1 0
SHEAR DIR 11 2 11 358 33 66 82 89 93 96 96 79 71 77 67 101 138
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.4 24.5 23.9
POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 149 144 142 142 138 135 130 127 125 122 114 105 98
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 74 76 78 78 76 79 77 76 75 73 74 76 75 74 68 68 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 22 24 25 28 31 31 29 25 22 19 17 16 16 14 12
850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -2 4 8 28 46 72 84 93 95 103 99 98 96 95 91
200 MB DIV 75 87 105 101 64 41 49 19 71 34 52 24 12 18 0 -28 -23
700-850 TADV -5 -13 -8 -5 -7 -5 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3
LAND (KM) 471 512 550 594 645 761 848 861 880 897 892 856 777 771 812 860 866
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.1 107.8 108.6 109.3 110.8 111.9 113.0 113.9 114.6 115.0 115.0 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 11 12 8 11 14 9 6 4 2 2 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -13. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 17. 12. 7. 3. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11.
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TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 34. 46. 52. 48. 35. 18. 1. -10. -18. -21. -24. -29. -33.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 106.4
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 10.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 4.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -10.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 6.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 7.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 52.6% 36.2% 23.2% 13.1% 28.9% 29.0% 9.2%
Logistic: 22.5% 59.8% 36.3% 28.7% 6.1% 24.5% 7.6% 3.6%
Bayesian: 14.5% 29.7% 22.9% 15.1% 0.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 18.6% 47.4% 31.8% 22.3% 6.6% 19.5% 12.5% 4.3%
DTOPS: 34.0% 60.0% 54.0% 29.0% 13.0% 57.0% 36.0% 8.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##