* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DON AL052023 07/17/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 37 39 39 40 39 38 39 40 42 45
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 37 39 39 40 39 38 39 40 42 45
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 30 27
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 13 19 16 14 6 16 15 16 10 9 17 19 34 47
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 3 0 -2 -2 -2 -6 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -8
SHEAR DIR 324 350 9 34 47 29 15 29 56 60 66 46 356 360 355 8 29
SST (C) 23.5 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.8 20.5 21.0 19.5 18.4
POT. INT. (KT) 95 98 98 99 97 99 103 103 100 99 100 100 104 82 84 78 75
200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 -55.9 -55.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 46 45 49 50 50 45 43 44 44 43 45 47 53 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 19 19 21 20 18 18 17 15 15 14 12 10
850 MB ENV VOR -17 1 15 44 62 69 67 62 40 7 -10 -49 -77 -117 -120 -109 -100
200 MB DIV -31 -40 -40 -44 -33 -23 -3 -35 -19 -20 0 21 6 -12 -5 -59 -52
700-850 TADV -1 -6 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 0 2 5 -6 -1 -1 8 13 17 22
LAND (KM) 1278 1387 1495 1601 1709 1798 1806 1762 1634 1452 1246 993 714 567 716 942 1160
LAT (DEG N) 38.4 37.7 37.0 36.1 35.2 34.2 33.6 33.5 34.2 35.3 36.5 38.4 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 42.2 41.4 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.5 40.4 41.5 42.8 44.5 46.7 48.4 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 7 4 4 5 8 10 11 12 12 14 15 12 10
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -20. -22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.4 42.2
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/17/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.57 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/17/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/17/2023 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 37 39 39 40 39 38 39 40 42 45
18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 30 31 36 38 38 39 38 37 38 39 41 44
12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 28 33 35 35 36 35 34 35 36 38 41
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 26 28 28 29 28 27 28 29 31 34
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT