* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP052023 08/04/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 93 89 87 83 85 86 84 81 79 78 77 76 79 81 82
V (KT) LAND 105 99 93 89 87 83 85 86 84 81 79 78 77 76 79 81 82
V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 88 84 80 79 78 76 75 75 76 75 72 68 64 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 6 0 2 7 4 10 10 13 12 14 14 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 2 1 1 2 3 5 0 3 0 1 0 0 -2 0 2
SHEAR DIR 90 101 120 141 146 130 232 281 285 280 267 286 278 275 270 246 253
SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 140 132 135 136 133 135 133 135 133 133 134 137 135 136 139 145 151
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 65 66 63 64 61 58 53 49 49 54 58 60 58 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 16 16 17 15 17 17 16 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 8
850 MB ENV VOR 81 94 108 113 106 94 89 93 99 98 96 82 75 57 25 12 -10
200 MB DIV 31 56 47 47 53 55 11 8 -5 -18 -28 -14 -9 10 -7 -4 -5
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -8 -4 2 -2 -5 -3 1 0 6 12 14 9 15 12
LAND (KM) 1894 2013 2131 2257 2386 2179 1858 1512 1213 938 703 714 929 1081 1233 1446 1743
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.6 129.1 130.7 132.2 135.4 138.7 142.4 145.9 149.7 154.0 158.0 161.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 18 20 20 19 17 16 16 17 19
HEAT CONTENT 7 1 2 3 2 9 5 3 4 2 3 19 5 22 17 47 58
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -3. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -18. -22. -20. -19. -21. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. -26. -24. -23.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.0 126.1
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 528.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.7% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/04/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##