* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP052023 08/06/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 122 119 115 107 100 94 88 84 83 81 80 75 74 73 72
V (KT) LAND 125 124 122 119 115 107 100 94 88 84 83 81 80 75 74 73 72
V (KT) LGEM 125 121 115 109 104 96 94 90 88 88 90 90 86 76 63 52 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 2 1 1 3 3 5 7 4 11 18 25 28 31 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 1 3 6 9 4 2 1 1 1 7 5 3 1 0
SHEAR DIR 222 285 320 18 320 337 286 297 297 297 265 277 245 258 240 257 252
SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.8 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 136 134 137 137 134 132 135 139 139 145 152 154 154 152 156
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 60 62 60 58 56 48 43 44 43 43 42 43 45 50 54 58 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 21 20 19 18 19 17 17 17 16 15 12 10 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 98 92 101 97 100 106 100 105 94 86 85 63 47 25 2 -16 -27
200 MB DIV 44 35 30 25 24 -7 -18 -7 -12 -29 -11 12 28 11 -1 14 62
700-850 TADV -1 -8 -10 -8 -5 -1 -1 3 7 11 8 8 13 14 7 2 12
LAND (KM) 1987 1812 1640 1473 1316 1033 809 726 827 1065 1256 1502 1742 1986 2229 2502 2799
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 137.4 139.2 141.0 142.9 144.7 148.4 152.3 156.0 159.8 163.7 167.8 171.6 174.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 18 19 20 19 18 16 14 14 16 17
HEAT CONTENT 4 8 8 2 5 4 4 2 8 11 18 49 58 41 34 29 47
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -41. -43. -44. -44. -45.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -42. -44. -45. -50. -51. -52. -53.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.1 137.4
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 771.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.05 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/06/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##