* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP062023 08/07/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 30 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 17 14 12 12 7 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 55 61 71 79 82 77 113 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.9 23.2 22.6 21.6 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 104 96 89 78 72 68 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 53 50 48 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 41 39 41 39 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 13 -18 -36 -10 -23 8 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -29 -18 -20 -14 -6 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 421 462 535 591 662 738 715 651 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.6 26.4 27.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.6 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.3 122.3 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 8 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -23. -34. -46. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.6 116.1
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062023 EUGENE 08/07/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.94 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062023 EUGENE 08/07/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##