* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP052023 08/11/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 101 99 95 85 77 71 67 63 64 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 105 104 101 99 95 85 77 71 67 63 64 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 105 103 101 97 94 87 80 73 65 59 53 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 6 10 23 19 18 17 9 6 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 7 6 -2 3 6 5 5 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 182 214 220 240 229 256 263 272 277 347 306 328 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 152 151 149 150 154 153 150 153 153 150 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 40 39 37 39 39 43 50 58 64 68 65 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 37 24 9 0 -10 -26 -20 -14 -18 -12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 31 23 0 4 -14 -3 20 14 15 -25 -13 -8 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 8 9 7 7 4 5 4 1 0 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1861 1970 2087 2187 2292 2489 2709 2824 2595 2411 2287 2225 2215 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.2 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 175.5 177.0 178.6 179.9 181.2 183.5 185.8 187.8 190.0 191.8 193.1 193.9 194.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 8 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 31 44 39 35 28 26 51 45 53 49 50 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -9. -9. -7. -4. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -10. -20. -28. -34. -38. -42. -41. -42. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.5 175.5
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1033.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.32 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.0% 4.3% 7.8% 8.5% 4.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.4% 1.6% 2.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052023 DORA 08/11/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##