* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP082023 08/17/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 24 28 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 24 28 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 23 22 21 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 7 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 235 236 275 289 305 313 307 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 140 141 142 146 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 52 51 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 -6 -13 -16 -12 -14 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -7 9 21 8 -10 -4 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 750 772 815 891 982 1200 1364 1560 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 156.3 157.5 158.7 160.0 161.3 163.9 166.5 168.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 8 21 27 16 14 17 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -2. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 156.3
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082023 GREG 08/17/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 4.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.14 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.6% 6.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082023 GREG 08/17/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##