* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NINE AL092023 08/21/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 34 34 37 35 37 37 37 37 36 32 31 30
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 29
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 1 11 13 17 12 19 15 17 18 25 29 36 32 34
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 3 0 4 0 4 0 -2 1 6 0 3 -2 5 0
SHEAR DIR 243 221 228 188 108 176 135 187 193 213 228 258 289 284 310 294 304
SST (C) 31.6 31.4 31.5 31.3 30.5 29.2 28.8 29.5 29.2 29.1 30.3 31.1 31.2 31.0 32.7 31.8 31.8
POT. INT. (KT) 173 174 174 174 174 158 151 163 156 154 171 170 171 172 172 173 173
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 11 7 10 7 10 3 6 0 4 0 3 0
700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 62 61 64 60 58 57 55 55 54 55 52 54 51 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 10 5 5 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 4 7 4 15 -11 -15 -14 -17 -31 -36 -7 -43 -38 -43 -27
200 MB DIV -15 25 34 13 3 40 -18 -1 1 12 -2 4 -13 1 -22 -21 -22
700-850 TADV -6 -2 -7 -19 -4 10 10 5 0 -2 0 11 25 21 42 -15 17
LAND (KM) 363 423 469 289 106 -223 -569 -623 -679 -841 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -813
LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.8 26.9 28.8 31.4 34.1 36.5 38.3 39.9 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 89.0 90.7 92.5 94.3 96.1 99.7 103.0 105.5 106.7 106.6 106.1 105.5 104.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 16 13 11 8 8 8 11 13 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 48 54 70 79 58 4 5 16 18 16 24 7 7 27 9 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 5. 10. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 4. -1. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 10. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. -2. -8. -10. -16. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. -20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 12. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 7. 6. 5.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.8 89.0
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092023 NINE 08/21/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.6 27.0 to 144.1 1.00 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 18.4% 11.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.8% 38.5% 28.4% 15.1% 7.8% 22.7% 16.9% 2.8%
Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Consensus: 3.4% 19.6% 13.7% 7.6% 2.6% 7.6% 9.7% 1.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092023 NINE 08/21/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092023 NINE 08/21/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 33 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 29
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 31 26 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 27
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 22 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 23
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT