* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EMILY AL072023 08/24/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 47 48 47 46 48 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 47 48 47 46 48 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 44 43 38 33 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 1 6 4 8 9 21 29 31 34 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 2 1 2 4 4 6 -2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 5 140 199 266 255 226 219 238 246 271 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.3 26.6 25.7 23.0 19.4 17.7 15.9 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 139 130 123 115 96 81 77 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -53.3 -54.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.2 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 58 56 57 54 41 38 36 34 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 10 11 13 13 11 8 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -2 12 21 32 23 9 -19 -61 -92 -95 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 11 37 22 34 41 45 23 30 16 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 8 4 9 30 23 28 11 31 22 -1 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1872 1736 1601 1438 1280 1007 901 1067 1425 1201 702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 48.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 18 20 21 20 21 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 11 13 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -3. -8. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 12. 11. 13. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.2 48.4
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072023 EMILY 08/24/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.64 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.5% 9.9% 7.9% 5.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.9% 5.1% 3.7% 1.7% 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 6.5% 4.5% 3.2% 1.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072023 EMILY 08/24/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072023 EMILY 08/24/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 43 47 48 47 46 48 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 45 46 45 44 46 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 41 40 39 41 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 32 31 30 32 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT