* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANKLIN AL082023 08/24/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 55 58 62 69 71 74 76 75 74 72 67 65 67
V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 55 58 62 69 71 74 76 75 74 72 67 65 54
V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 56 57 58 59 63 66 68 71 72 69 66 62 53 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 20 15 19 26 23 22 14 19 10 15 12 16 9 16 15 26 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 4 0 3 -2 1 -6 4 -6 0 -6 2 -1 10 16
SHEAR DIR 289 289 272 285 299 251 268 218 208 163 173 199 209 221 244 250 219
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.0 30.3 29.8 28.8 28.2 27.7 25.8 19.3 13.1
POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 159 160 160 163 170 169 171 166 149 140 135 116 84 74
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -50.4 -50.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 0 0
700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 61 62 64 63 64 63 62 63 63 68 69 73 67 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 10 13 14 18 18 21 22 24 25 26 26 25 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -15 3 14 3 5 31 22 42 23 28 11 13 0 -44 1 110 228
200 MB DIV 1 18 45 36 11 28 10 45 3 37 4 36 17 51 72 91 149
700-850 TADV 8 10 6 7 8 1 0 0 0 6 0 7 1 30 26 97 -47
LAND (KM) 261 321 383 431 476 558 646 723 821 943 911 785 762 655 485 219 117
LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.7 24.4 25.4 26.6 28.3 30.5 32.5 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.3 68.7 68.0 67.4 66.5 66.1 66.6 67.2 67.7 68.1 68.1 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 6 8 10 11 10 11 16 23 32 35
HEAT CONTENT 87 85 75 73 79 81 67 49 44 48 40 20 14 17 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 8. 3. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 7. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 13. 11. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 12. 19. 21. 24. 26. 26. 24. 22. 17. 15. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.1 70.0
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 12.1% 15.3%
Logistic: 3.1% 4.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.5% 3.5% 4.8% 6.9%
Bayesian: 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.5% 6.4% 4.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4.4% 5.7% 7.4%
DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/24/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 54 55 58 62 69 71 74 76 75 74 72 67 65 54
18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 52 55 59 66 68 71 73 72 71 69 64 62 51
12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 50 54 61 63 66 68 67 66 64 59 57 46
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 44 48 55 57 60 62 61 60 58 53 51 40
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT