* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IDALIA AL102023 08/28/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 72 79 84 92 95 97 86 71 57 45 35 33 30 26 25
V (KT) LAND 55 63 72 79 84 92 95 62 58 44 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 64 71 77 81 89 98 66 69 61 54 47 42 41 41 42 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 12 14 8 12 17 22 17 16 9 9 6 7 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 4 2 1 0 0 1 0 4 3 5 -3 0 -1 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 332 347 334 329 334 293 254 232 240 228 224 215 277 309 34 75 344
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.6 30.9 31.1 29.8 29.8 29.4 27.9 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.9 29.1 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 165 169 171 173 173 168 168 160 136 129 131 138 148 153 147
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.0 -49.6 -48.8 -49.3 -49.1 -49.3 -49.8 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 4 3 2 3 5 6 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 66 64 71 75 71 62 59 56 60 60 59 56 57 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 21 21 21 23 25 29 27 23 22 20 17 16 14 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 50 47 23 44 46 31 27 -1 -9 13 44 49 33 38 39
200 MB DIV 60 44 52 56 22 51 65 63 69 80 26 51 28 42 19 39 35
700-850 TADV 2 4 0 0 -3 10 0 4 -14 -23 -25 -6 0 -1 2 2 5
LAND (KM) 210 158 87 9 81 268 74 -3 105 174 406 646 838 959 1044 1174 1220
LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.0 22.8 25.1 27.9 30.5 32.6 33.7 34.1 34.1 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.1 84.9 85.0 85.0 84.6 83.6 81.5 78.4 75.1 71.7 68.9 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 10 13 15 16 16 15 13 10 7 6 5 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 53 64 89 97 122 47 55 44 46 83 16 12 13 15 25 26 23
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 14. 11. 5. 2. -2. -8. -9. -13. -16. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 22. 16. 8. -0. -8. -14. -16. -16. -17. -18. -16.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 24. 29. 37. 40. 42. 31. 16. 2. -10. -20. -22. -25. -29. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 85.2
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 15.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 4.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 85.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.53 3.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 3.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 1.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 2.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 52.8% 39.8% 29.6% 21.4% 40.2% 34.2% 29.6%
Logistic: 16.2% 39.2% 27.6% 22.6% 9.2% 35.1% 33.2% 22.2%
Bayesian: 11.6% 23.9% 12.9% 13.1% 1.9% 4.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Consensus: 15.8% 38.6% 26.8% 21.8% 10.8% 26.6% 22.9% 17.3%
DTOPS: 22.0% 27.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2.0% 14.0% 35.0% 2.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/2023 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 13( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 5( 9) 10( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 72 79 84 92 95 62 58 44 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 55 54 63 70 75 83 86 53 49 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 55 52 51 58 63 71 74 41 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 58 61 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT