* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELEVEN AL112023 08/29/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 39 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 39 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 11 6 3 7 14 28 29 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 -3 1 -2 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 258 294 355 335 347 41 34 33 356 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 149 151 151 151 151 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -52.2 -50.8 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 54 52 51 55 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -61 -58 -66 -66 -75 -88 -3 37 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -2 -21 -13 4 -21 -29 13 11 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 1 -3 0 0 2 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1543 1553 1563 1580 1598 1677 1682 1453 1168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 30.1 31.5 33.6 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 51.7 51.9 52.0 52.2 52.4 52.4 52.5 51.8 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 6 9 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 26 24 24 22 21 19 15 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.0 51.7
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112023 ELEVEN 08/29/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.89 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 12.9% 8.9% 7.7% 5.2% 9.5% 9.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 6.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 2.7% 2.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 1.9% 4.1% 3.7% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112023 ELEVEN 08/29/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112023 ELEVEN 08/29/2023 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 35 39 39 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 33 37 37 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 34 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 27 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT