* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102023 08/29/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 13 16 30 39 42 41 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 2 -1 -3 -5 -7 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 265 281 293 311 297 292 298 293 295 285 278 263 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.9 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.9 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 114 107 106 105 100 97 98 100 98 96 95 100 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 51 50 49 46 43 42 41 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 46 47 47 47 37 40 25 29 32 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -21 -2 -5 2 0 -10 -4 -14 6 -13 20 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 4 3 -1 0 1 4 1 2 0 2 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1756 1895 2035 2137 2109 1918 1760 1622 1506 1433 1369 1300 1204 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.2 19.0 19.0 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.8 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 129.6 131.1 132.5 133.6 134.7 136.5 138.0 139.3 140.4 141.1 141.7 142.4 143.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 4 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -6. -12. -16. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. -27. -34. -39. -44. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 129.6
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.31 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.44 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##