* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FRANKLIN AL082023 08/30/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 96 94 89 78 69 63 54 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 100 97 96 94 89 78 69 63 54 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 100 95 92 89 87 80 74 68 63 57 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 13 24 28 15 11 40 52 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 10 20 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 273 288 313 332 356 7 357 254 216 209 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.6 27.8 27.2 26.9 22.8 22.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 142 142 142 133 136 130 128 95 93 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -49.3 -49.3 -49.4 -49.5 -48.9 -48.3 -50.2 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 63 65 63 59 53 44 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 30 29 28 27 28 31 39 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 2 -13 -10 3 7 38 72 104 83 64 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -1 -20 -18 -20 -24 10 30 29 41 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 2 0 2 18 21 11 -11 -40 -114 -124 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 717 734 771 869 860 878 922 838 625 810 1136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.9 33.8 34.4 35.0 36.2 37.4 39.1 42.6 45.2 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 69.4 68.5 67.6 66.3 65.0 61.7 57.5 52.6 47.6 42.6 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 14 16 19 23 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 22 15 18 16 13 15 9 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -17. -28. -41. -54. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -6. -1. 3. 10. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -3. 6. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -11. -22. -31. -37. -46. -43. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.9 69.4
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 621.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 11( 44) 6( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 97 96 94 89 78 69 63 54 57 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 100 99 98 96 91 80 71 65 56 59 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 89 78 69 63 54 57 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 74 65 59 50 53 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 70 61 55 46 49 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 100 97 88 82 79 73 64 58 49 52 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 100 97 96 87 81 77 68 62 53 56 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS