* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IDALIA AL102023 08/30/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 95 87 75 63 58 54 51 50 52 49 47 48 51 51
V (KT) LAND 100 70 54 46 43 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 100 70 53 45 48 45 40 37 34 33 33 32 30 28 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 20 25 25 30 26 21 19 24 29 31 31 32 35 38 26 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 0 -1 3 1 6 -1 6 3 1 2 0 1 -5 -7
SHEAR DIR 206 197 210 221 227 228 238 249 252 253 253 246 227 214 206 208 272
SST (C) 31.3 30.4 30.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 159 159 153 141 138 137 143 147 153 154 155 149 142 150
200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.7 -48.7 -48.6 -48.5 -48.7 -49.0 -49.7 -50.5 -50.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 5 2 1 3 2 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 67 65 58 53 51 46 39 36 39 39 36 41 48 47 52 47 34
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 26 25 23 23 21 20 18 19 20 21 20 19 20 21 23
850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 38 32 39 3 0 17 33 36 38 40 44 50 58 45 -63
200 MB DIV 43 79 83 38 27 8 7 -11 -11 6 -11 5 1 8 3 11 -13
700-850 TADV 9 12 -8 -13 -20 -24 -16 -3 -6 -2 2 2 -2 0 5 -4 -10
LAND (KM) -12 -71 -4 3 26 243 496 660 805 885 922 1007 1153 1278 1237 1180 1140
LAT (DEG N) 30.0 31.3 32.5 33.3 34.0 33.9 33.2 32.2 31.5 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 83.6 82.3 80.9 79.3 77.6 74.0 71.2 69.9 68.6 67.9 67.5 66.5 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 15 13 10 6 5 3 3 6 8 10 12 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 50 6 36 24 23 55 18 17 18 26 29 33 31 29 26 12 19
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 16 CX,CY: 3/ 16
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -1. -10. -19. -28. -36. -43. -46. -50. -53. -57. -63. -67.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -14. -9. -5. -0. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 14. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -19. -21. -21. -18. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -13. -25. -37. -42. -46. -49. -50. -48. -51. -53. -52. -49. -49.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.0 83.6
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.24 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 451.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.0% 10.7% 8.7% 5.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.1% 5.6% 4.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 8.5% 6.9% 5.2% 4.2% 2.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 70 54 46 43 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 100 99 83 75 72 59 48 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
12HR AGO 100 97 96 88 85 72 61 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 74 63 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 68 57 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT