* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL062023 09/02/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 44 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 32 30 27 25 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 42 42 47 40 41 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 150 147 145 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 25 51 80 105 110 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -8 -20 21 27 60 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 0 1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1420 1494 1568 1689 1683 1402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.5 31.5 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 53.9 53.5 53.2 52.7 52.3 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 37 26 21 15 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.2 53.9
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 09/02/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 10.2% 6.9% 6.7% 3.7% 8.0% 8.4% 10.4%
Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.5% 2.4% 1.3% 3.1% 3.2% 4.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 09/02/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 09/02/2023 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 44 43 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 42 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT