* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KATIA AL122023 09/04/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 29 31 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 29 31 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 15 16 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 222 219 221 235 247 278 236 258 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 120 121 121 121 120 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 30 31 36 39 41 46 46 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -65 -66 -71 -77 -82 -84 -84 -75 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -24 -10 -21 -22 -22 -17 2 -24 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -3 -1 -7 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1877 1901 1924 1916 1909 1864 1796 1748 1755 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.1 33.6 33.4 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.9 34.3
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 KATIA 09/04/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.37 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.39 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.3% 8.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.5% 4.2% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 KATIA 09/04/2023 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 28 29 31 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 29 31 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 26 28 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 20 22 25 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT