* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL132023 09/05/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 49 58 67 76 82 86 90 92 97 103 105 111 114 114 112
V (KT) LAND 35 41 49 58 67 76 82 86 90 92 97 103 105 111 114 114 112
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 52 58 68 77 87 99 108 113 116 120 122 120 118 116
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 13 11 5 5 11 9 15 10 8 11 14 10 11 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 6 6 3 1 3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -7 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 55 61 74 66 64 45 357 255 278 258 298 269 289 287 311 286 272
SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 150 154 154 160 160 161 163 161 163 170 167 162 160 160 159
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -49.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9
700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 61 62 64 65 67 68 69 67 64 61 59 60 59 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 22 24 24 24 25 28 30 34 38 39 43 45 47 48
850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 45 51 37 43 44 41 32 31 35 38 52 53 59 64 89
200 MB DIV 72 102 113 86 84 54 19 6 52 20 19 19 12 14 50 33 60
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -7 -10 -9 -12 -11 -15 -10 -2 -7 0 1 4 8 12
LAND (KM) 1480 1403 1340 1291 1240 1169 937 753 592 403 330 345 420 535 568 658 785
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.4 19.4 20.4 21.4 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.4 43.8 45.0 46.3 48.8 51.3 53.8 56.2 58.4 60.5 62.6 64.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 9 5 5 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 37 34 36 59 60 54 65 49 71 52 78 77 77 67 68 54 50
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 27. 33. 38. 42. 45. 45. 42. 40. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 13. 17. 22. 27. 27. 31. 34. 35. 33.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. -0. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 32. 41. 47. 51. 55. 57. 62. 68. 70. 76. 79. 79. 77.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 41.1
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/05/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.79 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 1.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 42.7% 25.0% 10.4% 8.2% 16.9% 21.2% 33.4%
Logistic: 8.8% 26.5% 16.5% 6.7% 2.2% 8.4% 8.1% 14.7%
Bayesian: 3.4% 10.6% 15.5% 1.3% 0.8% 8.6% 25.5% 16.4%
Consensus: 6.2% 26.6% 19.0% 6.1% 3.8% 11.3% 18.3% 21.5%
DTOPS: 5.0% 35.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 9.0% 13.0% 85.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/05/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/05/2023 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 49 58 67 76 82 86 90 92 97 103 105 111 114 114 112
18HR AGO 35 34 42 51 60 69 75 79 83 85 90 96 98 104 107 107 105
12HR AGO 35 32 31 40 49 58 64 68 72 74 79 85 87 93 96 96 94
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 34 43 49 53 57 59 64 70 72 78 81 81 79
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT