* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JOVA EP112023 09/07/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 140 145 143 137 128 111 94 77 58 44 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 140 145 143 137 128 111 94 77 58 44 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 140 142 138 130 119 98 81 65 52 43 36 30 24 19 15 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 13 9 7 6 2 3 7 13 16 21 28 34 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 1 -1 8 14 19 17 13 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 43 39 41 57 69 61 115 199 218 203 215 233 230 230 232 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.8 26.7 26.1 24.3 23.7 22.1 22.7 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 144 132 126 107 100 82 88 90 95 96 96 98 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -52.1 -52.8 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 81 78 73 70 64 61 54 50 44 34 28 24 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 36 35 36 34 31 27 24 21 19 16 13 10 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 83 90 102 107 108 114 117 106 85 45 33 12 2 -14 -15 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 93 74 61 26 15 50 34 -8 8 24 -10 -18 -21 -26 -15 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -16 -11 -7 -2 -3 -4 2 2 4 8 10 6 -2 -3 -8 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 850 860 897 959 1006 1122 1200 1313 1402 1412 1464 1544 1667 1768 1846 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.6 21.0 22.4 23.8 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 113.7 115.0 116.3 117.7 119.1 121.7 124.2 126.6 128.3 129.7 131.2 132.9 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 9 8 7 9 8 5 4 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 27 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -22. -37. -52. -68. -82. -94. -104. -110. -114. -116. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -7. -2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 10. 7. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -1. -6. -8. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -10. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 3. -3. -12. -29. -46. -63. -82. -96. -109. -119. -125. -131. -137. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 16.1 113.7
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.3% 6.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112023 JOVA 09/07/23 06 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##