* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARGOT AL142023 09/08/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 51 56 66 72 81 88 91 93 91 90 88 88
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 51 56 66 72 81 88 91 93 91 90 88 88
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 51 56 63 71 76 77 77 78 78 77
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 18 20 15 20 20 18 15 17 13 3 11 18 19 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 1 0 6 4 0 -2 0 2 3 -1 -1 -2 5 -5
SHEAR DIR 231 244 254 280 298 294 253 216 211 171 191 157 257 271 239 236 321
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.9 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 132 135 137 142 144 147 140 149 138 136 137 132 126 123
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 2.1 2.5 1.9
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 55 56 59 62 63 60 58 56 48 47 48 54 54 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 16 18 21 22 27 30 34 37 38 39 39 40 41 43
850 MB ENV VOR 94 94 89 73 61 63 58 73 52 79 97 96 91 71 69 81 113
200 MB DIV -5 -6 16 26 32 87 34 72 46 46 26 26 11 0 9 22 1
700-850 TADV 12 14 10 7 8 9 6 11 7 2 6 7 5 7 7 2 -3
LAND (KM) 1368 1528 1688 1823 1946 2159 2328 2297 2286 2280 2179 2017 1868 1718 1562 1466 1429
LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.6 22.0 23.6 25.5 27.2 28.8 30.3 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 30.1 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.6 37.8 39.5 40.6 41.3 42.1 42.8 43.0 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 6 4 2
HEAT CONTENT 14 23 31 20 23 27 32 33 20 25 32 21 10 10 8 7 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 19. 16. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 13. 17. 23. 27. 28. 28. 26. 26. 26. 27.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 21. 31. 37. 46. 53. 56. 58. 56. 55. 53. 53.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 30.1
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.91 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 10.9% 7.2% 6.5% 3.7% 8.1% 8.6% 11.8%
Logistic: 2.2% 4.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 3.7% 2.5% 3.4%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 5.4% 3.2% 2.7% 1.6% 4.0% 3.7% 5.1%
DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/08/2023 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 43 51 56 66 72 81 88 91 93 91 90 88 88
18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 49 54 64 70 79 86 89 91 89 88 86 86
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 44 49 59 65 74 81 84 86 84 83 81 81
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 36 41 51 57 66 73 76 78 76 75 73 73
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT