* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARGOT AL142023 09/09/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 52 55 63 70 75 81 83 85 86 88 88 85 78
V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 52 55 63 70 75 81 83 85 86 88 88 85 78
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 50 55 61 67 70 70 72 74 74 71 66 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 29 21 20 20 19 25 16 23 20 16 4 16 21 21 14 7 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 8 5 4 -2 -1 -1 4 0 -1 -1 2 -1 -1 7 4
SHEAR DIR 307 306 280 268 244 232 202 202 178 185 254 250 256 282 14 78 77
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 138 141 141 137 138 141 136 137 132 129 129 128 129
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.4 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 5 4 5 4
700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 62 64 59 59 56 56 50 45 48 50 37 31 27 28
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 15 19 20 24 27 31 35 34 35 37 40 41 39 37
850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 53 51 63 60 69 70 83 81 73 73 67 64 60 22 5
200 MB DIV 44 86 71 45 59 41 50 49 25 7 -11 -3 3 -40 -9 -60 -20
700-850 TADV 10 5 0 3 9 2 5 6 6 6 6 5 -1 -5 -4 0 -5
LAND (KM) 2142 2231 2289 2279 2251 2257 2262 2291 2252 2046 1830 1641 1482 1410 1390 1348 1249
LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.6 25.1 26.6 28.5 30.4 32.3 33.9 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.5 39.4 39.9 40.5 41.0 41.4 41.7 41.7 42.0 42.6 43.3 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 2 2 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 31 32 37 33 29 35 19 15 19 22 9 11 8 6 6 6 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. 2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 24. 25. 26. 28. 29. 25. 21.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 23. 30. 35. 41. 43. 45. 46. 48. 48. 45. 38.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 37.6
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.7% 8.6% 7.3% 4.5% 8.5% 9.3% 10.6%
Logistic: 2.0% 3.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Bayesian: 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 3.3% 2.8% 1.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8%
DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/09/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 52 55 63 70 75 81 83 85 86 88 88 85 78
18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 48 51 59 66 71 77 79 81 82 84 84 81 74
12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 43 46 54 61 66 72 74 76 77 79 79 76 69
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 38 46 53 58 64 66 68 69 71 71 68 61
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT