* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARGOT AL142023 09/10/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 50 54 60 71 75 77 80 81 80 77 71 64 57 54
V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 50 54 60 71 75 77 80 81 80 77 71 64 57 54
V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 49 55 61 64 65 66 67 67 65 61 56 51 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 17 21 21 20 26 18 10 5 6 11 20 10 16 21 26 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 2 -2 0 0 -2 4 1 -1 1 0 0 8 0 -1 6
SHEAR DIR 251 229 221 225 208 187 158 144 98 289 219 245 320 348 41 82 119
SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.2 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 139 137 137 135 136 136 136 129 127 128 122 120 122 123 117
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 58 57 55 56 55 52 52 50 43 36 35 40 48 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 23 27 34 35 35 36 37 37 37 36 34 30 29
850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 34 28 43 48 67 47 41 36 35 44 30 -3 -30 -38 -33
200 MB DIV 67 89 75 63 59 59 37 38 15 12 18 -12 -8 -37 -33 -22 -19
700-850 TADV 11 9 6 7 7 7 9 9 5 4 7 3 0 3 -3 1 3
LAND (KM) 2316 2333 2335 2344 2358 2370 2193 1980 1757 1620 1553 1474 1373 1367 1424 1435 1368
LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.9 27.7 29.4 31.5 33.7 35.0 35.5 36.3 37.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.1 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.5 41.9 42.0 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 11 9 5 3 5 4 1 2 3 5
HEAT CONTENT 28 34 23 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 16. 18. 19. 21. 23. 22. 20. 17. 13. 7. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 26. 30. 32. 35. 36. 35. 32. 26. 19. 12. 9.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.6 39.9
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.44 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 11.5% 7.6% 6.5% 3.8% 7.8% 8.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 4.5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 2.7% 2.8% 0.1%
DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/10/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 50 54 60 71 75 77 80 81 80 77 71 64 57 54
18HR AGO 45 44 45 48 52 58 69 73 75 78 79 78 75 69 62 55 52
12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 54 65 69 71 74 75 74 71 65 58 51 48
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 56 60 62 65 66 65 62 56 49 42 39
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT