* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARGOT AL142023 09/11/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 68 74 79 86 89 88 86 82 74 62 52 44 41 40 41
V (KT) LAND 60 63 68 74 79 86 89 88 86 82 74 62 52 44 41 40 41
V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 70 73 79 82 82 82 80 73 64 56 51 48 49 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 18 18 17 18 8 5 5 11 16 13 15 13 19 13 17 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 1 -2 -3 3 -4 0 0 0 0 4 8 0 4 0 0
SHEAR DIR 204 202 189 184 187 154 33 177 216 272 277 321 28 72 148 186 226
SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 136 136 138 140 132 127 121 117 115 116 117 117 117 118
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 59 60 60 57 55 57 54 51 47 46 45 46 46 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 32 33 37 37 37 38 39 38 34 31 28 28 29 32
850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 31 49 57 39 28 29 26 38 30 -7 -16 -28 -38 -24 2
200 MB DIV 53 68 72 46 26 35 8 4 51 21 -5 -28 -50 -12 -16 20 15
700-850 TADV 9 13 10 6 8 10 4 4 6 4 3 2 0 -1 -3 -7 4
LAND (KM) 2393 2394 2398 2319 2207 1978 1786 1642 1558 1512 1487 1475 1455 1421 1355 1313 1288
LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.6 29.7 31.8 33.4 34.5 35.5 36.3 36.9 37.1 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 40.0 39.9 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.4 41.2 42.0 41.8 41.3 40.8 40.7 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 9 8 5 5 4 2 1 2 3 2 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 12 11 13 12 9 6 3 2 1 2 3 3 4 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -30. -33. -36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 13. 6. 0. -4. -6. -5. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 26. 29. 28. 26. 22. 14. 2. -8. -16. -19. -20. -19.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 40.0
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.27 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.46 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.2% 12.5% 8.1% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.6% 7.2% 5.1% 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.9% 8.6% 6.0% 3.2% 0.1% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1%
DTOPS: 7.0% 16.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/11/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 7( 10) 10( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 68 74 79 86 89 88 86 82 74 62 52 44 41 40 41
18HR AGO 60 59 64 70 75 82 85 84 82 78 70 58 48 40 37 36 37
12HR AGO 60 57 56 62 67 74 77 76 74 70 62 50 40 32 29 28 29
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 62 65 64 62 58 50 38 28 20 17 16 17
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT