* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LEE AL132023 09/13/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 101 102 104 99 95 91 85 76 60 40 32 31 37 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 100 101 101 102 104 99 95 91 85 76 60 36 31 30 36 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 100 100 101 102 101 98 93 87 77 58 37 29 31 32 34 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 10 13 14 19 28 45 45 31 27 34 46 53 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 -1 -3 0 7 9 10 5 -2 2 3 0 2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 228 252 236 225 208 220 204 193 195 185 189 207 217 232 237 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.1 27.2 26.4 27.7 19.2 14.9 18.5 16.5 14.7 7.6 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 150 152 138 128 120 135 79 69 75 72 72 67 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.3 -48.6 -48.8 -48.7 -48.2 -47.5 -47.0 -46.6 -47.3 -47.9 -47.9 -47.9 -47.2 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 58 62 65 64 62 58 47 37 44 44 51 56 58 49 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 41 43 43 44 47 45 47 48 49 47 37 26 21 20 19 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 69 60 76 91 96 108 118 145 154 132 117 115 112 94 88 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 78 87 55 89 111 109 126 123 39 68 82 75 39 10 5 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 5 9 9 12 10 9 3 3 10 0 5 0 -3 -55 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 686 719 749 830 889 975 829 796 519 271 23 -54 103 75 152 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.8 27.7 29.6 32.0 34.9 37.9 41.2 44.3 46.5 47.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.8 67.2 67.4 67.7 68.1 67.9 67.0 66.4 66.3 66.4 65.4 63.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 10 10 14 15 16 16 13 10 14 20 23 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 49 45 42 39 34 22 7 1 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -21. -31. -42. -50. -56. -61. -62. -57. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 4. 11. 15. 22. 27. 32. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 4. 5. 7. 4. -12. -31. -37. -40. -41. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. -1. -5. -9. -15. -24. -40. -60. -68. -69. -63. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.0 66.5
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.05 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 540.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.2% 10.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.3% 6.6% 4.3% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/13/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/13/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 22 23( 40) 26( 56) 21( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 51 44( 73) 26( 80) 0( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 101 102 104 99 95 91 85 76 60 36 31 30 36 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 102 97 93 89 83 74 58 34 29 28 34 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 99 94 90 86 80 71 55 31 26 25 31 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 87 83 79 73 64 48 24 19 18 24 DIS DIS
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 72 68 62 53 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 79 75 71 65 56 40 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 100 101 101 92 86 82 78 74 68 59 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS