* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARGOT AL142023 09/15/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 60 58 54 45 40 38 41 42 38 30 26 21 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 60 58 54 45 40 38 41 42 38 30 26 21 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 61 61 58 52 47 45 48 48 44 40 36 32 27 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 15 13 17 16 20 22 20 1 8 14 14 3 2 7 22 32 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 6 7 0 -2 6 -1 -1 3 -4 6 1 4 5 12
SHEAR DIR 241 274 296 295 293 18 49 37 173 214 202 242 212 284 293 346 344
SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.1 24.8 25.6 23.5 22.0 22.0 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 117 119 122 120 122 120 119 106 103 111 97 89 89 91
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.2 -51.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 1
700-500 MB RH 51 50 46 41 39 35 34 38 43 47 43 34 32 31 35 40 36
MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 33 33 33 28 26 26 28 30 28 25 22 18 13 8
850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 13 5 -5 -21 -24 -32 -42 -58 -46 -43 -27 -28 -62 -76 -78
200 MB DIV 19 -12 -2 -17 -19 -63 -60 -1 12 14 2 -10 -20 -13 -42 -51 -127
700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -2 -3 -7 0 1 2 3 1 1 11 15 0 9 7
LAND (KM) 1592 1611 1629 1650 1671 1680 1618 1533 1414 1284 1239 1328 1533 1777 1556 1186 892
LAT (DEG N) 36.9 36.8 36.6 36.4 36.1 35.4 35.3 35.4 36.0 37.6 39.4 40.3 39.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 39.0 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.8 39.7 41.0 42.5 43.8 43.4 41.5 39.1 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 5 6 5 6 10 11 10 12 16 17 16 15
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -26. -32. -37. -41. -44. -44. -46. -47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -9. -14. -16. -15. -13. -17. -23. -27. -34. -41. -46.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -20. -25. -27. -24. -23. -27. -35. -39. -44. -50. -54.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.9 39.0
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.01 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.58 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 11.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 60 58 54 45 40 38 41 42 38 30 26 21 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 59 55 46 41 39 42 43 39 31 27 22 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 53 44 39 37 40 41 37 29 25 20 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 49 40 35 33 36 37 33 25 21 16 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT