* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWELVE EP122023 09/17/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 10 17 21 23 26 25 26 31 33 43 50 62 54 56 49 55
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 3 2 2 -4 9 6 14 12
SHEAR DIR 262 224 213 223 225 231 245 272 276 257 240 234 236 251 266 271 296
SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 141 143 143 146 145 143 142 137 138 141 144 149 152 155
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 46 49 47 47 50 56 57 61 64 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 15 18 17 5 -4 -22 -14 -13 -8 -9 -2 -2 3 -2 6
200 MB DIV -3 2 9 1 -9 -9 -26 11 22 30 18 26 22 33 -6 6 -14
700-850 TADV 1 3 1 0 -1 0 2 2 2 3 2 2 -1 -1 -11 -4 -10
LAND (KM) 1443 1344 1261 1197 1146 1021 888 778 743 814 925 975 1138 1365 1618 1860 2091
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.9 12.0 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 142.9 144.1 145.1 146.0 146.9 149.1 151.7 154.6 157.6 160.5 163.3 165.8 168.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 9 10 12 13 15 14 15 14 12 14 13 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 15 31 8 8 9 17 17 9 16 23 39 37 34 40
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 32. 37. 40. 43. 44. 45. 45. 46. 47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -22. -28. -35. -42. -50. -52. -51. -49. -46.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -19. -23. -26. -26. -22. -18. -16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 142.9
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122023 TWELVE 09/17/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 4.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.44 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 7.2% 6.5% 4.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 3.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122023 TWELVE 09/17/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##