* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KENNETH EP132023 09/21/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 39 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 44 41 39 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 38 35 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 17 23 26 32 37 46 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 6 5 3 2 -2 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 225 238 243 240 238 228 209 226 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 23.8 23.0 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 116 114 110 108 98 89 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 55 51 47 44 37 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 13 14 12 9 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 26 17 22 0 -12 -38 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 27 22 29 30 29 29 12 1 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 10 9 13 17 22 21 14 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1582 1580 1581 1533 1488 1385 1314 1279 1311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.2 20.0 21.6 22.7 23.6 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.0 126.5 126.7 126.9 126.9 126.8 126.9 127.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -14. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -9. -17. -26. -36. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.2 125.4
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132023 KENNETH 09/21/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.30 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132023 KENNETH 09/21/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##