* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL162023 09/23/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 58 55 45 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 60 61 50 41 35 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 60 61 52 42 35 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 39 35 29 29 34 29 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 -4 -7 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 186 195 198 199 219 256 246 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 27.2 26.9 27.7 27.4 25.1 24.3 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 150 126 122 132 128 104 98 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 50 47 51 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 25 23 15 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 85 85 100 94 71 33 33 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 96 53 54 49 23 -32 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 19 23 18 15 11 18 9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 146 58 -42 -39 -122 -133 -122 -160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.2 35.1 35.9 36.6 38.1 39.2 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.9 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.1 76.4 76.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 29 6 7 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -15. -24. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -15. -25. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.3 76.6
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 OPHELIA 09/23/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.19 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.34 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.9% 9.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 5.6% 3.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 OPHELIA 09/23/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 OPHELIA 09/23/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 50 41 35 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 60 59 48 39 33 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 60 57 56 47 41 35 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 44 38 38 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT