* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL162023 09/24/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 40 41 27 31 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -9 1 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 217 235 245 232 237 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.8 25.3 24.2 23.3 22.8 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 121 107 98 92 90 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 50 53 57 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 20 17 14 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 86 53 50 55 57 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 40 -34 -26 30 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 19 20 15 12 1 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -143 -126 -137 -97 -43 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.6 38.3 38.7 39.1 39.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 77.6 77.3 77.0 76.2 75.4 73.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.8 77.6
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162023 OPHELIA 09/24/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 0.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 0.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.24 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.16 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162023 OPHELIA 09/24/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162023 OPHELIA 09/24/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 29 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT