* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL172023 09/24/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 43 47 50 53 56 58 65 65 66 64 61 59 60
V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 43 47 50 53 56 58 65 65 66 64 61 59 60
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 44 45 47 49 51 54 55 54 53 50 48 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 6 8 11 8 14 20 22 23 25 29 32 26 26 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 4 2 5 7 8 3 5 5 4 3 2 5 0 1
SHEAR DIR 269 274 240 237 232 258 235 233 233 250 221 214 213 231 228 248 273
SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.0 27.4 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 146 154 152 147 149 152 155 156 156 162 162 155 155 157 151 129 139
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 60 62 63 65 67 70 67 68 60 58 55 60 66 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 13 17 17 19 19 18 16 17
850 MB ENV VOR 60 49 42 33 31 27 30 33 50 41 59 35 40 39 65 54 22
200 MB DIV 60 58 50 41 60 55 61 35 28 25 52 51 34 25 24 42 22
700-850 TADV -2 0 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 2 -5 -4 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1725 1640 1562 1504 1444 1344 1163 1048 972 938 950 1017 1085 1196 1353 1576 1856
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.2 19.7 21.6 23.1 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 40.3 41.5 42.7 43.7 44.8 47.1 49.2 50.6 52.0 53.1 53.7 53.9 53.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 11 9 8 9 9 9 6 5 6 9 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 34 52 58 44 40 35 56 45 40 53 57 47 40 36 30 11 20
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 36. 39. 40. 40. 37. 35. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -2. -3. -2. -2. -5. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 30. 30. 31. 29. 26. 24. 25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 40.3
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.0% 9.9% 7.7% 5.2% 10.3% 13.2% 16.4%
Logistic: 1.8% 5.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 2.4% 5.3% 10.0%
Bayesian: 2.7% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 2.1% 2.7%
Consensus: 2.4% 8.0% 4.3% 2.9% 1.8% 4.7% 6.9% 9.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/24/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 41 43 47 50 53 56 58 65 65 66 64 61 59 60
18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 40 44 47 50 53 55 62 62 63 61 58 56 57
12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 41 44 47 49 56 56 57 55 52 50 51
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 34 37 40 42 49 49 50 48 45 43 44
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT