* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL172023 09/26/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 42 43 43 42 42 43 44 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 42 43 43 42 42 43 44 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 40 38 35 34 33 33 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 21 22 20 24 20 22 22 18 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 8 7 4 -1 2 -1 1 -4 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 232 241 250 247 242 228 249 249 246 269 269 287 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 157 157 161 167 162 162 156 152 146 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 61 64 63 59 60 55 52 48 48 48 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 41 38 25 36 20 31 36 31 33 24 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 30 15 10 11 1 30 -6 -11 -28 -2 -29 4 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 5 6 0 0 6 -4 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1270 1184 1104 1046 990 866 759 678 617 560 497 447 432 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.8 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.6 50.6 51.6 52.5 54.0 55.5 56.9 58.2 59.2 59.9 60.9 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 71 60 41 37 44 66 71 72 88 64 59 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.6 48.5
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.1% 5.9% 4.9% 3.0% 7.5% 8.0% 10.8%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 2.6% 2.8% 3.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/2023 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 42 42 43 43 42 42 43 44 47 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 42 43 43 42 42 43 44 47 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 41 41 40 40 41 42 45 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 36 35 35 36 37 40 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT