* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL172023 09/28/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 56 63 69 75 84 89 90 97 103 106 106 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 56 63 69 75 84 89 90 97 103 106 106 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 51 56 63 71 81 89 93 97 102 103 100 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 5 8 7 11 10 14 18 17 14 9 2 6 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 6 3 1 -2 3 0 1 0 1 6 12 9 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 231 227 209 280 288 313 318 333 325 321 297 303 323 301 342 N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 155 155 156 160 162 160 162 166 162 152 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 60 57 54 54 53 50 51 50 54 56 59 60 62 62 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 21 25 28 29 32 36 38 40 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 74 72 69 73 71 81 73 95 90 74 78 87 78 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 55 34 11 6 12 2 -4 3 6 10 1 21 52 61 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 1 5 3 6 3 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 771 731 692 667 643 574 517 448 359 318 293 275 237 291 419 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.6 18.3 17.8 17.4 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 54.5 54.9 55.3 55.5 55.8 56.4 56.9 57.5 58.3 58.7 59.0 59.3 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 2 3 2 3 5 6 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 66 64 60 58 57 57 54 53 61 66 70 74 80 69 54 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 33. 33. 31. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 12. 16. 21. 22. 23. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 24. 30. 39. 44. 45. 52. 58. 61. 61. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 54.5
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.2% 11.0% 9.1% 7.1% 11.5% 14.6% 18.8%
Logistic: 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2.3% 4.0% 4.0%
Bayesian: 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 0.2%
Consensus: 2.4% 7.1% 4.6% 3.5% 2.5% 4.7% 6.8% 7.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 53 56 63 69 75 84 89 90 97 103 106 106 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 53 60 66 72 81 86 87 94 100 103 103 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 61 67 76 81 82 89 95 98 98 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 51 57 66 71 72 79 85 88 88 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT