* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL172023 09/29/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 51 57 67 72 78 84 90 94 97 98 100 98 94
V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 51 57 67 72 78 84 90 94 97 98 100 98 94
V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 47 52 57 63 69 74 80 85 88 91 93 90 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 14 15 15 21 17 16 11 9 8 14 10 19 36 45
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 -3 2 -4 4 4 3 7 7 4 3 2 3 -1
SHEAR DIR 293 300 309 307 302 323 330 340 312 327 326 253 294 239 225 226 243
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.5 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.9 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 160 162 162 164 165 160 155 157 159 149 153 148 149 132
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 6
700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 52 50 54 54 57 60 62 64 68 65 63 56 51 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 20 21 22 25 26 28 31 34 36 38 40 43 44 45
850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 86 91 79 72 73 70 73 79 71 74 87 95 105 33 -10
200 MB DIV 16 20 19 11 -6 11 31 60 41 56 42 57 38 26 -4 -4 -8
700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -1 -2 2 1 4 11 12 12 10 8 5 1 -10 -13
LAND (KM) 686 669 652 633 614 564 518 492 452 455 511 635 789 970 1173 1367 1546
LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.2 17.1 17.2 18.1 19.3 20.7 22.3 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.5 55.6 55.8 55.9 56.2 56.7 57.0 57.5 57.8 58.1 58.2 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 62 62 62 61 60 57 55 55 53 49 53 76 44 47 29 33 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. 35. 32. 29. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24. 27. 27. 26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 27. 32. 38. 44. 50. 54. 57. 58. 60. 58. 54.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.4 55.3
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.7% 9.9% 8.1% 5.9% 10.4% 13.5% 17.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 2.6% 5.5% 6.3%
Bayesian: 0.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Consensus: 2.0% 7.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 4.4% 6.4% 7.8%
DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 32.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/2023 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 51 57 67 72 78 84 90 94 97 98 100 98 94
18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 48 54 64 69 75 81 87 91 94 95 97 95 91
12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 49 59 64 70 76 82 86 89 90 92 90 86
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 50 55 61 67 73 77 80 81 83 81 77
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT