* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RINA AL182023 09/30/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 37 33 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 37 33 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 38 34 28 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 49 49 47 44 37 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 6 7 6 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 301 305 305 297 297 290 276 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 151 152 151 144 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 63 66 62 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 12 11 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 28 39 37 12 24 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 46 35 40 13 -17 32 42 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -14 -19 -15 -19 -15 -7 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1368 1291 1221 1167 1121 1031 1076 1207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 24.0 25.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.0 50.9 51.7 52.5 54.5 56.1 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 49 46 38 39 53 45 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -28. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.6 49.1
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 RINA 09/30/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 60.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.58 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 RINA 09/30/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 RINA 09/30/2023 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 40 37 33 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 45 44 41 38 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT