* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL172023 10/02/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 44 46 50 54 57 62 66 69 69 63 56 51 57
V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 44 46 50 54 57 62 66 69 69 63 56 51 57
V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 43 43 43 44 47 52 57 61 58 48 38 33 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 29 24 19 17 15 18 11 13 15 17 21 32 39 52 46 34 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 10 9 4 8 3 2 5 6 5 4 -1 -2 1 7
SHEAR DIR 307 303 302 309 300 312 287 291 247 243 233 263 270 283 275 275 264
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.0 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.2 27.6 26.7 25.7 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 166 166 157 154 146 136 145 147 150 139 130 120 111 120
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -53.6 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 65 69 73 77 77 75 66 59 54 49 44 37 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 18 19 20 22 26 29 32 35 35 33 30 34
850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 34 34 37 29 33 34 56 53 73 49 50 54 59 60 65
200 MB DIV 16 20 18 54 63 22 50 47 67 92 101 77 91 70 47 2 5
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 3 0 4 10 4 1 3 14 25 28 27 5 1 -6
LAND (KM) 276 248 198 158 117 164 276 445 632 844 1088 1296 1488 1646 1600 1517 1432
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.0 19.1 20.4 22.1 23.8 25.7 27.7 29.2 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 58.9 59.3 59.8 60.2 60.7 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.5 61.0 60.0 58.5 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 7 8 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 67 74 85 93 91 76 76 46 22 28 23 39 23 10 2 0 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. 16. 13. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 13. 17. 20. 18. 14. 9. 14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 24. 18. 11. 6. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.5 58.9
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.51 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 9.0% 13.1%
Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 2.3% 5.4%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Consensus: 0.3% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 3.8% 6.4%
DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 10.0% 5.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 43 44 46 50 54 57 62 66 69 69 63 56 51 57
18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 44 46 50 54 57 62 66 69 69 63 56 51 57
12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 41 43 47 51 54 59 63 66 66 60 53 48 54
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 42 46 49 54 58 61 61 55 48 43 49
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT