* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL172023 10/03/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 45 48 56 57 55 58 60 54 51 44 44
V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 45 48 56 57 55 58 60 54 51 44 44
V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 41 41 44 46 45 42 39 36 34 31 28 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 26 26 21 21 22 16 26 21 36 42 38 27 18 7 17 16 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 3 4 2 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 307 304 300 280 273 219 234 219 238 241 244 247 259 254 259 231 143
SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.2 26.8 26.1 26.6 25.5 24.8 20.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 161 161 163 158 147 150 146 142 127 123 115 118 108 103 82
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.7 -54.5 -55.5 -56.0 -57.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 63 63 66 70 73 76 80 80 73 64 51 46 51 44 35 33 32
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 13 16 21 23 22 24 26 23 22 17 17
850 MB ENV VOR 14 0 6 17 15 6 33 53 71 93 84 59 66 86 75 56 -27
200 MB DIV 10 -7 12 55 51 73 89 121 94 68 65 64 25 27 -8 25 -16
700-850 TADV -1 0 6 3 -2 1 3 4 26 36 56 85 25 0 6 0 -9
LAND (KM) 54 47 102 164 223 394 594 805 1050 1294 1179 1005 897 778 661 565 409
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.0 20.7 22.3 24.1 26.0 28.2 30.6 33.0 35.2 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.8 63.0 63.4 63.8 64.2 64.6 64.6 63.9 63.2 62.3 61.0 59.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 10 7 7 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 70 71 74 76 68 48 27 35 20 17 7 8 0 11 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. 8. 4. 0. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -17. -15. -12. -9. -7. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. 1. 7. 10. 8. 10. 11. 7. 5. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -0. 3. 11. 12. 10. 13. 15. 9. 6. -1. -1.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 62.5
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.04 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 8.6% 11.3%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.3%
Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 3.8% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.3% 3.8% 4.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/2023 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 42 42 45 48 56 57 55 58 60 54 51 44 44
18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 42 42 45 48 56 57 55 58 60 54 51 44 44
12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 40 43 46 54 55 53 56 58 52 49 42 42
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 37 40 48 49 47 50 52 46 43 36 36
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT