* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LIDIA EP152023 10/06/23 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 66 67 67 63 61 62 58 42 34 34 32 29 26
V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 66 67 67 63 61 62 58 42 34 34 32 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 63 65 64 62 63 66 63 48 39 37 36 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 17 17 18 14 10 7 13 26 25 21 35 42 47 50
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 5 0 -5 4 0 4 3 1 -1 -4 -9
SHEAR DIR 90 83 94 100 88 85 81 126 198 222 219 225 203 196 202 213 221
SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.5 29.7 30.4 31.0 31.5 29.7 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 151 149 148 147 148 149 152 158 161 168 169 169 161 154
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -49.4 -49.7 -49.7 -50.3 -51.3 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 5
700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 56 56 59 51 51 54 50 44 47 51 46 40 38 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 26 27 27 24 24 26 25 12 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 66 70 69 78 82 79 78 90 94 71 61 43 15 36 -8
200 MB DIV 36 12 35 35 48 23 25 18 13 40 109 64 37 2 14 5 -5
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -3 -1 0 1 -3 -8 -2 1 0 0 13
LAND (KM) 719 736 733 742 754 742 701 613 525 445 383 305 246 120 38 -82 -238
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.3 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 112.9 113.3 113.8 113.4 112.5 111.6 110.4 109.2 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 7 5 5 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 33 31 29 26 25 22 17 16 17 20 26 28 34 36 42 25 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -16. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 5. 3. -14. -22. -20. -18. -17. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. 1. 2. -2. -18. -26. -26. -28. -31. -34.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 111.0
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 5.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -4.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 1.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 23.4% 19.8% 17.2% 12.7% 19.2% 14.2% 8.3%
Logistic: 1.2% 5.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.8% 9.6% 6.9% 5.9% 4.4% 6.5% 4.8% 2.8%
DTOPS: 8.0% 12.0% 6.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/06/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##