* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LIDIA EP152023 10/07/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 58 57 55 55 56 56 57 39 27 29 30 31 29 27
V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 58 57 55 55 56 56 57 39 27 29 26 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 60 59 57 55 53 55 53 42 32 31 28 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 24 23 18 22 20 19 6 5 18 31 28 28 35 42 45 61
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 0 -2 0 -3 -1 3 1 -1 -3 1 -1 -3 -4 -13
SHEAR DIR 89 101 114 97 96 94 110 138 228 226 222 223 216 222 222 228 229
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.4 29.1 29.1 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 149 147 147 148 151 158 162 167 170 169 155 155 155
200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 8 6 10 7 11 6 8
700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 58 62 60 56 55 56 50 47 45 39 36 37 37 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 27 27 27 26 26 26 27 14 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 62 67 72 69 72 65 76 77 81 67 39 15 0 5 -31
200 MB DIV 11 37 43 50 51 34 19 11 30 53 80 30 -7 -11 -8 -17 -11
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 0 1 -2 -8 -9 1 1 0 0 2
LAND (KM) 751 755 763 760 758 727 659 590 492 384 335 215 142 -37 -230 -408 -485
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.9 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.9 112.3 112.7 113.0 113.4 113.4 113.0 112.0 110.5 108.9 107.7 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 8 7 7 7 9 8 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 32 32 31 27 25 19 16 16 18 26 32 35 32 32 22 20 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -19. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 4. -14. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -21. -33. -31. -30. -29. -31. -33.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 111.4
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.50 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -4.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.93 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.95 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 18.6% 16.7% 14.4% 10.4% 16.2% 12.3% 7.6%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.8% 6.5% 5.6% 4.8% 3.5% 5.4% 4.1% 2.6%
DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/07/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##