* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LIDIA EP152023 10/10/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 78 68 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 80 82 78 55 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 80 79 74 53 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 14 22 27 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 245 240 223 224 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.5 29.4 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 172 161 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.7 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 16 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 87 85 105 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 51 54 43 20 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 2 -13 -7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 328 167 6 -97 -244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 108.4 107.1 105.7 104.3 102.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 46 44 38 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -5. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -12. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.9 108.4
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/10/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/10/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##