* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEAN AL192023 10/15/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 8 10 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 107 114 74 64 94 92 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 144 149 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 49 47 47 48 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -35 -46 -51 -53 -53 -58 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -21 -3 0 -15 -28 -26 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1514 1495 1440 1363 1288 1117 924 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.9 46.7 47.5 48.4 50.4 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 34 35 37 45 53 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 45.1
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192023 SEAN 10/15/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.8% 11.6% 9.4% 7.6% 11.7% 13.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 8.9% 20.4% 19.1% 12.5% 5.5% 17.3% 9.4% 7.7%
Bayesian: 0.7% 5.9% 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 4.8% 14.3% 12.3% 7.4% 4.4% 11.1% 8.1% 2.6%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192023 SEAN 10/15/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192023 SEAN 10/15/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT