* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TAMMY AL202023 10/19/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 50 58 66 72 79 84 84 83 78 73 74 74
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 50 58 66 72 79 84 84 83 78 73 74 74
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 44 48 52 57 63 68 69 67 60 51 43 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 5 7 6 3 5 10 20 22 26 31 60 102 115 107
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 11 15 9 6 0 4 3 -2 -7 -17 -23 -24
SHEAR DIR 281 283 297 305 266 261 215 245 219 245 232 235 221 245 254 255 259
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.6 25.8 22.8 21.7 22.0
POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 168 168 172 172 171 171 172 163 162 158 153 121 98 84 86
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 5 2 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 60 58 58 56 61 59 61 57 57 62 56 41 39 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 15 15 17 18 19 21 22 23 25 25 25 26 29
850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 21 24 21 27 38 25 20 7 9 -1 30 28 -25 -90 -73
200 MB DIV 87 54 30 34 58 61 52 17 10 27 38 36 76 92 40 -4 28
700-850 TADV -10 -10 -10 -4 -4 2 2 5 0 1 4 5 -4 -6 -37 -78 -8
LAND (KM) 749 614 478 373 271 131 27 37 47 251 377 696 1193 1536 1356 1402 1242
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.5 15.5 16.5 18.7 20.7 22.1 24.6 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.8 55.0 56.0 57.0 59.5 61.0 62.5 62.9 63.1 63.7 61.9 58.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 11 10 12 10 9 9 11 9 10 19 33 46 34 7 9
HEAT CONTENT 77 83 86 76 73 60 68 79 83 78 59 35 26 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 38. 42. 44. 43. 38. 36. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 37. 44. 49. 49. 48. 43. 38. 39. 39.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 52.5
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 3.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.91 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 33.9% 16.8% 9.9% 8.1% 12.5% 15.5% 26.7%
Logistic: 6.7% 25.5% 16.2% 5.4% 2.3% 5.8% 4.9% 4.3%
Bayesian: 0.9% 10.0% 4.5% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 3.8% 1.1%
Consensus: 4.3% 23.2% 12.5% 5.2% 3.6% 6.4% 8.0% 10.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/19/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 44 50 58 66 72 79 84 84 83 78 73 74 74
18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 47 55 63 69 76 81 81 80 75 70 71 71
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 42 50 58 64 71 76 76 75 70 65 66 66
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 42 50 56 63 68 68 67 62 57 58 58
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT