*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  NORMA       EP172023  10/22/23  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    55    52    47    43    39   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       55    52    47    38    34   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       55    54    52    42    36   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)        35    36    39    40    43   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     7     7     7     8     5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        230   229   224   225   216   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         29.7  29.9  29.9  29.3  28.8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   159   161   162   156   150   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -49.1 -49.0 -49.1 -49.2 -49.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   1.0   1.5   1.0   0.6   0.6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     6     5     7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     37    36    35    34    35   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    19    16    12    10     6  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    52    63    75    80    75   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        37    41    39    34    45   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       0     0     0    -1     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)         90    58    15   -39   -92   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     24.8  25.1  25.3  25.6  25.8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    109.5 109.2 108.8 108.3 107.8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     4     4     5     5     5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      28    30    28    21    17   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/  4      CX,CY:   2/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  50            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  737  (MEAN=588)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            0.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.   -2.   -2.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.    1.    1.    2.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  PERSISTENCE            1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -1.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -1.   -4.   -6.   -9.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.    0.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  RI POTENTIAL          -0.   -1.   -2.   -3.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -3.   -8.  -12.  -16.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   24.8   109.5

      ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172023 NORMA      10/22/23  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  102.7     36.9  to  148.5        0.59         999.0
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    5.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.41         999.0
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   55.7     30.9  to    7.7        0.00           0.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  421.0    816.2  to  -81.4        0.44         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   39.2    -33.0  to  159.5        0.38         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   55.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.93         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   21.5     37.8  to    2.1        0.46         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   24.8      2.7  to  103.4        0.22         999.0
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :   71.1     49.8  to    0.0        0.00           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -1.3      2.2  to   -2.3        0.80         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  999.0%
       DTOPS:     1.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172023 NORMA      10/22/23  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##