* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TAMMY AL202023 10/23/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 79 81 80 80 80 76 70 59 50 48 46 42 39 36
V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 79 81 80 80 80 76 70 59 50 48 46 42 39 36
V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 78 78 78 78 76 68 54 41 32 28 26 25 23 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 19 19 18 29 34 40 39 41 32 24 26 29 35 31
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 2 4 4 5 7 10 16 10 1 0 0 1 4 -1 1
SHEAR DIR 254 245 238 223 217 240 225 228 217 218 212 228 236 276 270 277 265
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.3 25.6 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 153 151 145 142 144 145 136 128 127 118 113 113 108 102
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 2.4 1.8 0.7 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 66 59 53 51 47 41 34 35 38 44 48 50 52 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 20 21 24 28 29 28 23 18 18 18 16 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 11 -4 9 14 24 52 114 128 148 123 76 21 -12 -19 -26 -41 -58
200 MB DIV 72 43 19 32 65 71 86 84 70 29 -27 -44 7 -2 8 7 11
700-850 TADV 9 12 9 11 3 3 -1 10 12 30 15 24 13 0 -14 -1 0
LAND (KM) 170 242 318 365 414 522 643 779 981 1141 1235 1300 1057 911 856 782 651
LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.2 24.0 25.0 26.7 28.3 29.5 30.4 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 63.8 63.9 64.0 63.8 63.5 62.7 61.7 60.8 60.1 60.2 61.2 63.1 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 7 8 11 9 5 3 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 72 65 61 59 59 46 31 30 30 18 9 8 9 1 2 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -15. -13. -10. -8. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 15. 14. 5. -3. -4. -4. -8. -10. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 1. -5. -16. -25. -27. -29. -33. -36. -39.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.2 63.8
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.31 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 15.9% 11.2% 9.4% 7.1% 9.5% 8.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.3% 4.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.1% 7.3% 4.9% 4.1% 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202023 TAMMY 10/23/2023 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 8( 18) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 77 79 81 80 80 80 76 70 59 50 48 46 42 39 36
18HR AGO 75 74 75 77 79 78 78 78 74 68 57 48 46 44 40 37 34
12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 74 74 74 70 64 53 44 42 40 36 33 30
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 66 66 66 62 56 45 36 34 32 28 25 22
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT