* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OTIS EP182023 10/24/23 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 49 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 46 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 47 38 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 17 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 128 155 162 170 168 175 155 142 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.2 28.6 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 149 157 161 164 164 164 155 148 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 6 9 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 70 64 59 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 9 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 47 45 57 83 86 93 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 28 8 12 33 37 37 48 53 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -9 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 294 228 169 139 110 40 -47 -71 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.5 18.1 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.1 98.4 98.6 98.8 99.5 100.4 101.0 101.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 5 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 23 31 35 35 29 19 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 97.8
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/24/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 20.4% 17.6% 15.1% 0.0% 21.4% 18.0% 10.9%
Logistic: 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.8% 8.6% 6.2% 5.1% 0.1% 7.3% 6.3% 3.9%
DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/24/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##